WawaCoin
Key Summary
SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) is an on-chain indicator that measures the ratio of realized price to acquisition price of spent outputs on the Bitcoin network. Simply put, it helps you understand whether coins are being moved at a profit or loss across the entire market.
This indicator is crucial because it reveals investors' actual behavior. Unlike price charts alone, it allows you to verify market sentiment through on-chain data. When SOPR is above 1, it means profit-taking on average; below 1 indicates loss realization.
Since the 2024 Bitcoin halving, the importance of the SOPR indicator has grown significantly. With institutional investor inflows, on-chain analysis has become essential, and SOPR has established itself as a core indicator alongside the MVRV Ratio Guide and NVT Ratio Guide.
This guide systematically covers everything from SOPR calculation principles to various variant indicators, practical trading applications, and the current 2026 market situation. If you're interested in Crypto Analysis, please read to the end.
Understanding SOPR: Concepts and Fundamentals
What is SOPR?
SOPR stands for Spent Output Profit Ratio, which literally means the profit ratio of spent outputs. It's an on-chain indicator based on Bitcoin's UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) model.
Every time coins move on the Bitcoin network, it compares the price at creation time with the price at spending time of that UTXO. SOPR aggregates this ratio for all UTXOs spent during a given day across the entire network.
The formula is simple: (USD value at spending time) ÷ (USD value at creation time). If this value is greater than 1, it means coins were moved at an average profit; less than 1 means they were moved at a loss.
For example, if SOPR is 1.05, it means the coins moved that day had an average profit of +5%. Conversely, 0.95 would indicate an average loss of -5%. This gives you an instant snapshot of the entire market's profit/loss realization status.
| SOPR Value | Meaning | Market State |
|---|---|---|
| > 1.05 | High Profit-Taking | Overheating Warning |
| 1.00 ~ 1.05 | Moderate Profit-Taking | Healthy Bull Market |
| 1.00 | Break-Even Point | Key Support/Resistance |
| 0.95 ~ 1.00 | Slight Loss Realization | Correction Zone |
| < 0.95 | High Loss Realization | Possible Capitulation |
Advantages of UTXO-Based Analysis
Bitcoin's UTXO model allows transparent tracking of all coin movements. Since each UTXO's creation and spending times are permanently recorded on the blockchain.
This characteristic makes SOPR a manipulation-proof market sentiment indicator. Unlike exchange data or surveys, it's based on actual on-chain activity. Combined with Bitcoin Whale Wallet Tracking, even more accurate analysis becomes possible.
However, since internal exchange movements and self-wallet transfers are also included, the adjusted version aSOPR (adjusted SOPR) is more commonly used.
Psychological Interpretation of SOPR
When SOPR falls below 1, it means investors are selling at a loss. This is direct evidence of fear psychology. Conversely, when it's significantly above 1, greed psychology is prevalent.
An interesting point is that SOPR 1.0 acts as a psychological resistance. Investors who are in a loss tend to sell when they break even, so when SOPR reaches 1, selling pressure often increases.
SOPR Calculation Methods and Data Interpretation
Accurate SOPR calculation requires access to blockchain data. On-chain analysis platforms like Glassnode and CryptoQuant provide this data.
The calculation formula is as follows: For all UTXOs spent during a specific period, divide the sum of (BTC price at spending time × coin quantity) by the sum of (BTC price at creation time × coin quantity). This gives you the SOPR for that period.
Since daily SOPR has high volatility, the 7-day moving average is commonly used. It reduces noise and shows trends more clearly. The 30-day moving average is useful for long-term trend identification.
An important note when interpreting: criteria differ based on market cycles. In bull markets, SOPR 1.0 acts as support, but in bear markets, it becomes resistance. You need to first determine what stage the current market is in.
When looking at aSOPR, remember that UTXOs under 1 hour are excluded. This filters out exchange hot wallet movements and simple consolidation transactions to extract more meaningful signals.
| Data Source | Indicators Provided | Paid/Free | Features |
|---|---|---|---|
| Glassnode | SOPR, aSOPR, STH/LTH-SOPR | Paid | Most Detailed Analysis |
| CryptoQuant | SOPR, aSOPR | Partially Free | Real-time Alerts |
| Lookonchain | Basic SOPR | Free | Easy to Check |
| Santiment | SOPR Variants | Partially Free | Social Data Integration |
SOPR Investment Strategies
There are three main ways to apply SOPR to actual investing. First, capturing bottom signals; second, detecting overheating warnings; third, confirming trend reversals.
For bottom signals, watch for when SOPR breaks above 1 after spending extended time below 1. This signals that capitulation selling has ended and new demand is entering. This pattern appeared in November 2022 and January 2023.
Overheating warnings occur when SOPR consistently rises above 1.05. Investors are realizing high profits, increasing the possibility of correction. This signal was observed at historical peaks covered in the Bitcoin Complete Guide.
Trend reversal confirmation involves analyzing divergence between SOPR and price. If price is at new highs but SOPR is declining, it's a warning signal that new buyers' profit margins are shrinking.
| Strategy | SOPR Condition | Additional Confirmation | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bottom Buy | < 0.95 → 1.0 Breakout | Volume Increase | Start DCA |
| Trend Following | 1.0 Support Confirmed | 7-Day MA Rising | Hold Position |
| Take Profit | > 1.08 Sustained | Volume Spike | Partial Sell |
| Stop Loss | 1.0 Breakdown | 7-Day MA Falling | Consider Exit |
| Wait | 0.98 ~ 1.02 Range | No Direction | Stand By |
SOPR Variant Indicators Deep Dive
aSOPR (Adjusted SOPR)
aSOPR is a version of basic SOPR that excludes UTXOs with lifespans under 1 hour. It filters out internal exchange movements and self-wallet consolidation transactions to provide more meaningful data.
Most on-chain analysts prefer aSOPR over basic SOPR. With reduced noise, trend identification becomes easier. The current aSOPR at 1.01 shows the market has just crossed above break-even.
aSOPR Bullish Signals
Sideways above 1.0 then rising Bounce after touching 1.0 in downtrend 7-Day MA golden cross above 30-Day MA aSOPR rising despite price decline
aSOPR Bearish Signals
Breaking down below 1.0 Rejection at 1.0 after bounce attempt 7-Day MA death cross below 30-Day MA aSOPR falling despite price rise
aSOPR Neutral Signals
Sideways without direction near 1.0 Volatility compression with volume decline Mixed signals with other on-chain indicators Awaiting macro events
STH-SOPR and LTH-SOPR
STH-SOPR is the SOPR of Short-Term Holders who have held for less than 155 days. They react sensitively to market fluctuations, making it useful as a short-term sentiment indicator. Currently at 0.96, it shows short-term holders are still at a loss.
Conversely, LTH-SOPR is the SOPR of Long-Term Holders who have held for more than 155 days. They have strong market conviction, making it a long-term trend signal. Currently at 1.05, long-term holders are in profit.
The larger the gap between these two indicators, the closer we are to a market turning point. The current situation where STH < 1 < LTH is a typical pattern of the early recovery stage after bottom formation.
STH-SOPR Interpretation
Prolonged below 1: Short-term holder capitulation 1.0 breakout: Recovery signal Above 1.05: Short-term overheating warning High volatility: Reference for short-term trading
LTH-SOPR Interpretation
Below 1: Even LTH at loss (severe bear market) Near 1: LTH at break-even 1.03~1.10: Healthy profit-taking Above 1.15: LTH massive profit-taking (caution)
STH/LTH Comparison
STH < 1 < LTH: Bottom forming (current) STH > 1 > LTH: Rare case (major reversal) Both > 1: Full bull market Both < 1: Extreme bear market
Entity-Adjusted SOPR
Entity-Adjusted SOPR clusters wallets managed by the same entity into one for calculation. It treats coin movements between multiple wallets owned by the same person as a single activity, enabling more accurate analysis.
This indicator is exclusively provided by Glassnode and is particularly useful for institutional investor activity analysis. It reduces noise from individual investors and helps identify whale movements.
WawaCoin Outlook
SOPR Strengths
Real-time profit/loss tracking Direct market sentiment measurement Clear 1.0 benchmark Segmentation via variant indicators
SOPR Weaknesses
Only measures coin movements (not holdings) Exchange movement noise Lag during rapid moves Possible false signals when used alone
Complementary Indicator Combinations
SOPR + MVRV: Profit + Valuation SOPR + NVT: Profit + Network Activity SOPR + Funding Rate: On-chain + Derivatives SOPR + Exchange Balance: Profit + Liquidity
Combining SOPR with other on-chain indicators enables more accurate market assessment. For example, if SOPR breaks above 1 while MVRV is also above 1, you can confirm that both realized and unrealized profits are in positive territory.
Conversely, if SOPR is above 1 but MVRV is significantly high, it warns that profit-taking pressure may increase. High unrealized gains can be realized at any time.
Combining the NVT Ratio Guide's network value indicator with SOPR allows you to simultaneously understand whether the price is fair (NVT) and how investors are behaving (SOPR).
Investor Checklist
We analyze the current market situation shown by SOPR indicators in 2026 and future outlook. Let's examine SOPR patterns along with the post-halving cycle.
Current SOPR Status
Currently, SOPR at 1.02 and aSOPR at 1.01 have just crossed above break-even. After early March correction, it's in recovery phase, having confirmed support at the 1.0 level.
Halving Cycle Analysis
About 2 years have passed since the April 2024 halving. Historically, 18-24 months post-halving is the peak growth period, and we've just entered this zone, suggesting room for SOPR growth.
STH-SOPR Signal
STH-SOPR at 0.96 shows short-term holders are still at a loss. When their SOPR breaks above 1, it will be a strong bullish signal. Historically, price increases occurred within 2-4 weeks after STH-SOPR > 1 transition.
LTH-SOPR Signal
LTH-SOPR at 1.05 shows long-term holders taking modest profits. It hasn't reached overheating levels (above 1.15), suggesting room for further upside.
Institutional Investor Impact
Since Bitcoin ETF introduction, institutional holdings have started reflecting in SOPR. Due to institutions' long-term holding tendency, LTH-SOPR stability has increased.
H2 2026 Outlook
Current SOPR patterns are similar to mid-2017 and early 2021. Both cases saw significant rallies within the following 6 months. However, results may vary depending on the macro environment.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where can I check the SOPR indicator?
You can check the SOPR indicator on on-chain analysis platforms like Glassnode, CryptoQuant, and Lookonchain. Glassnode provides the most detailed data but is paid, while CryptoQuant offers basic SOPR for free. Some SOPR indicators are also available for free on TradingView. Beginners are recommended to start with CryptoQuant's free version and consider paid services once familiar.
Is SOPR below 1 always a buy signal?
SOPR below 1 isn't always a buy signal. What matters is the moment when it breaks above 1 from below. If it stays below 1 for too long, further decline is possible. Also, confirm with other indicators. When MVRV is extremely low and SOPR starts breaking above 1, it's a more reliable buy signal.
Should I look at aSOPR or basic SOPR?
In most cases, aSOPR is more useful. By excluding UTXOs under 1 hour, noise from internal exchange movements is reduced. Use basic SOPR for understanding overall network activity, but use aSOPR for actual investment decisions. Check STH-SOPR and LTH-SOPR as well depending on your investment style.
What's the difference between SOPR and MVRV?
SOPR measures realized profit/loss, while MVRV measures unrealized profit/loss. SOPR shows the profit rate of people who actually moved coins, while MVRV shows the average profit rate of all coins currently held. High SOPR means active profit-taking, while high MVRV means large potential selling pressure. Looking at both indicators together helps you understand both realized and potential.
What are the limitations of the SOPR indicator?
The main limitation of SOPR is that it only measures coin movements. Coins staying in wallets aren't reflected. It also has lag during rapid moves and exchange movements can create noise. This is why adjusted indicators like aSOPR and Entity-Adjusted SOPR were developed, and using them with other on-chain indicators is recommended.
Can I see SOPR for coins other than Bitcoin?
SOPR was originally created based on Bitcoin's UTXO model. Ethereum uses an account model, but similar concept indicators have been developed. However, for altcoins, data provision is limited and reliability may be low. SOPR analysis is meaningful only for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Conclusion
SOPR is a powerful on-chain indicator that directly measures realized profit/loss of Bitcoin investors. It objectively verifies market sentiment through blockchain data that price charts alone cannot reveal. It provides a simple yet effective framework for judging profit/loss realization based on 1.0.
To summarize the key content covered in this guide: First, SOPR > 1 means profit realization, SOPR < 1 means loss realization. Second, aSOPR is a noise-filtered adjusted indicator more useful for practice. Third, the gap between STH-SOPR and LTH-SOPR signals market turning points.
As of March 2026, SOPR at 1.02 indicates early recovery after bottom confirmation. STH-SOPR at 0.96 shows short-term holder capitulation is in its final stages, while LTH-SOPR at 1.05 shows long-term holders are taking healthy profits. Historically positive signals are appearing.
However, rather than making investment decisions based on SOPR alone, please analyze together with MVRV, NVT, funding rates and other indicators. On-chain analysis is a tool that improves probabilities, not a crystal ball that predicts the future.
We hope you use the SOPR indicator to understand the market's profit/loss realization status and make wiser investment decisions. It's important to continuously monitor data and establish your own criteria. Referring to the Ethereum Complete Guide and other Crypto Analysis articles will provide even richer insights.